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Apr 11, 2017 / Richard Hall

20 year view of world economy

The Economist published a 20 year view of the global economy on 1st April, giving an even longer perspective on my favourite chart, which I like so much because it summarises world economic growth in a single line.

What it shows is remarkable stability over the past 5 years, with growth consistently close to 3%, though the last quarter of 2016 was a slightly lower 2.8%. This compares with a similar average but more volatility in the late 1990s and early 2000s, then 4 years of 4% plus growth from 2004 to 2007 before a plunge to -2% in 2009 and surge to +5% in 2010.

China and India have gained in importance, contributing over 50% of global growth at the end of 2016. The United States and Europe have become secondary contributors. My sense is that growth this year will be more widely spread, rather than being as dependent on so few countries.

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